I think maybe your view is too narrow? It's not that people don't want to make a machine, it's that now they don't have to.

When I started hobby CNC a few years ago, the only compact or desktop CNC machines were flimsy Chinese things made entirely of extrusion, expensive machines made for education/prototyping environments and the Carbide3D Nomad (which I ended up buying).

I ended up building a machine from scratch because the original Nomad was too flimsy to really cut metals, even Aluminium.

But in the last few years companies like Makera came along and sell desktop CNC machines that can cut metal for under $6k USD and there's even a toolchanger.

For just a little more, there's a Kickstarter for a 5-axis machine with mist cooling, ATC a wireless probe and it can cut steel and titanium.

And for those that want a DIY project, there seem to be plenty of folks doing CNC conversions of second-hand manual mills.

> The lie has been heavily sold to the maker community that you are "wasting your time if you make something yourself" since it is cheaper to offshore even small 3d prints and machining projects.

> The ability to make things at home is disappearing

I do not know what you are talking about.

3D printing at home is more popular than ever. Even families I know who don’t have a computer at home, only their phones, now have 3D printers and use them.

> People cannot/will not learn to make their own machines

I think this is an appeal to 3D printing purity that drove me away from many of the communities. In the early days we all swapped tips and shared reviews of parts (like the Smoothieboard I still have) with other people who liked to build machines because that was the only way to do 3D printing at hobby level prices. When asked what we used the 3D printers for, the joke was that they were used to print parts for our 3D printer. It wasn’t really a joke, though. We spent more time keeping the printers working and trying to tune them than we did printing other things we needed.

That has flipped. Now it’s easy to get a cheap 3D printer and start getting parts out of it without thinking about the printer much. This is great if you’re a person who wants to use the output of the printer. This is boring if you think the value is the process of building and changing the printer hardware all the time.

I’m tired of hearing takes about how this is wrong or bad. Most “makers” want to make other things, not spend their precious free time trying to debug failing prints. There are more opportunities and knowledge available now for people who do want to build their own machines and it’s very cheap. People who want to do that can, but don’t look down upon the people who don’t want to do that.

> The lie has been heavily sold to the maker community that you are "wasting your time if you make something yourself" since it is cheaper to offshore even small 3d prints and machining projects.

I've seen what people go through when they operate 3D printers. The impression I have is that they still make 2D inkjet printers look like paragons of reliability.

I think it’s never been a better time to be an at-home maker.

I built 3 Voron printers because there wasn’t a way to get close to that performance at a price I would choose to pay. I hand-converted a HF mill to DRO then to 2-axis CNC.

I can buy printers that are 90-95% as good for well under $1000 and 75-85% as good for $350 now.

CNC routers are readily available and good. Laser cutters are readily available, reasonably cheap, and good.

I just don’t see a broad migration to importing maker parts (other than PCBB/PCBA, which is phenomenal).

Re: factory in another country: I use and recommend craftcloud (Germany company that facilitates having your uploaded model be printed wherever and however you choose (and see prices of course). I am always able to find companies in the USA to print my designs. I had repeated good results with https://hudsoncreativegroup.com/ in AR. The only reason I haven’t done it myself is because I don’t have time to do it often enough and each time I get back into it I have to relearn about the material choice tradeoffs. If I had a better grasp of these things and get a less demanding tech job/replaced by AI :), I would research buying one.

I feel like this has been a talking point for as long as off-the-shelf printers aimed at hobbyists have existed. Calling them AI factories is a bit off the mark imo, there are plenty of hobbyists that learn CAD and want to make their own stuff, but don't want to build their own printer. The kind of people who are interested in reprap are absolutely still around, and I really don't see that community going dissolving because of the rise of capable commercial printers.

I'm not sure if it's that simple. Many space-intensive DIY hobbies are on the retreat simply because more people are moving into cities or very dense suburbs where you have no practical opportunity to, say, build a woodworking shop. Metalworking was even more severely impacted, for obvious reasons.

Also, long before mail-order offshore manufacturing, people have been lured away from most of this by the promise of 3D printing. Every other techie I know owns a 3D printer. Most have not made anything interesting with it because they soon learn that the real difficulty is materials science and 3D design. But as a nerd, it's the thing you're supposed to own. In contrast, I know maybe four people in the SF Bay Area who are into woodworking, metalsmithing, CNC, or stuff like that.

I don't see mail-order prototyping as a conspiracy... it's more of a culmination of the DIY community chasing the mirage they were sold on in the early 2010s. I still remember the HN claims: home manufacturing revolution! It's the beginning of a brand new economy, why would anyone buy anything anymore when you can just click "print"... with some amusing parallels to how some folks now talk about building your own software with AI.

The mail-order stuff isn't evil insofar that it may allow some people to make things they couldn't make before. On the flip side, it's a very inefficient way to learn, so I think it will reduce hardware literacy among those who could afford a garage workshop.

FWIW, I think the same goes for AI-assisted hardware design. On one hand, I see people who otherwise wouldn't be DIYing getting into DIY: "I asked Claude and it one-shotted this rectangular enclosure for me, it's amazing!", "Claude made this RP2350 breakout board for me, how cool is that". But I also see established DIYers getting a degree of brain rot.

Steel and aluminum costs way more than it did last year, as the tariffs are hitting the small manufacturers first.

Openbuilds was a slotted 2020 china rail kit company, and was very clear about community members being not allowed to post unrelated projects. There was nothing really "open" about their site, but it was more of a Mecano like product.

Sherline CNC mills were never as solid as Taig, but the mini-lathes were workable for small hobby projects (had mine for years till upgrading to a South Bend antique.)

3D printers are easier to use given they handle geometry impossible for milling. If I have a choice between printing or cutting a herringbone gear, than printing wins every time (time cost is zero for automation.)

There is also the export restriction on 5-axis machine CAM software now. Small CNC machines are a great way to learn, but most kids no longer have $7k to spend on a hobby. If you have long term space on property, than a full-sized worn old mill is a better investment (just don't climb mill if you want reasonable tolerances.)

The problem isn't just hobby mills/lathes, but many firms went under in the past few decades. Domestic manufacturers have mostly lost the skills needed to build things themselves. It is funny seeing old 1950's US milling machines (sold as scrap iron) still running small business in the India industrial strip.

Hobby 3D metal-printing + EDM/Grinder technology will probably fill the void, but people are going to see more suboptimal oddball composites.

>Maybe it's by design? I don't know.

Unlikely, just other people making money off of peoples short-term thinking. =3

Even China had a hard time keeping its milling factories fed over the years. The only difference was their government recognized the strategic importance. It is why you can now find drill/tap/chamfer combination carbide end mills in every metric size you could want.

>The ability to make things at home is disappearing

It is changing, for example instead of using noisy cutters people use shears to cut SAC305 solder bars. As in a hobby class 7 zone building space, your neighbors don't want to deal with noise, dust, or weird smells etc.

One will also see more low cost 3D printed mild steel in home 3D printers, as the amount of physical space needed to print an engine block for example is smaller than a fridge. The future is here, but people in the US will have to wait a few more years. You already know why =3

Do you expect the homeowner that needs to mow their lawn to build their own lawnmower? How about the "tech savvy" homeowner that wants an automated lawnmower? Should they be derided for buying one of the robot mowers instead of building their own? Should the person that needs a hammer and nails to build a raised bed for their gardening hobby be required to make the hammer or the nails, in the name of "learning something new/valuable"?

It comes down to the fact that these things are tools. Now that reasonably affordable "turnkey" or "off the shelf" options are available, what you're really seeing is the divide between those wanting building the tool itself as their hobby, and those that just want a tool to use on their other hobbies. There was less of a divide previously because for most people, the "just buy one" option simply didn't exist. Now it does.

I spent a lot of time over the years wire-wrapping circuits, then manually laying out and etching/making circuit boards, then using software to do the layouts while still etching/drilling boards myself, then learning and switching the bulk of my projects to surface-mount. It was a necessary part of making electronic bits for stuff I wanted, but I didn't enjoy that part. Now that I can draw something up, send it off and for a few bucks have professionally manufactured multi-layer boards in days/weeks, with many/most components already placed and soldered, why wouldn't I cut out the part I don't enjoy?

I played with 3d printers off and on from about 2006 onwards, though I never kept one around for any real length of time. I found that while I really wanted the capabilities, I didn't want "building and keeping a 3d printer running" to be my hobby. 20 years later, there are options that don't require printer maintenance to be it's own hobby, and I'm much more willing to keep one around.

I've had a couple Chinese-made mini-mills since 2002 -- Sieg X2s, if I remember the old naming scheme correctly, though they were sold by various importers with their own names/model numbers. I converted one to CNC operation in 2004. While I appreciate the work done by others that I could learn from, I did not enjoy the process or the project. If there had been a reasonably affordable "turnkey" option with the capabilities I wanted, I would have 100% taken it. If I needed another one now, with the options available, there's no way I'd bother to build my own. Even then, I would have gone with sherline's early cnc offerings -- they fit my budget, but were just too small for what I wanted to do.

My first CNC router was scratch-built in the early 2000s. My current one came in a crate 4 years ago, and cost about half of what building a new one with the same capabilities from scratch would have. Instead of spending a several months' worth of weekends building it, I spent one weekend unpacking it and setting it up, another fine-tuning it and the software settings, and then was able to start using it for projects I enjoyed.

The ability for people to make things at home is expanding, just not in the way you'd like to see. That isn't a bad thing.

At the end of the day, time is what is ultimately valuable, and I don't have nearly as much of it as I did when I was younger. At this point, I'd much rather spend what time I do have enjoying my hobbies and creating the things I want to create, not building tools or suffering through tasks I hate simply because someone else thinks that is the important part. It seems I'm not the only one.

As for companies that "care" disappearing, well, that's just the current business environment. When the only measure of success that's deemed important is the stock value -- or potential stock value, in the case of startups -- customer service is an expense that can be cut to inflate next months' quarterly report. In exchange, the concept of customer loyalty is dying as well.