> A good proxy is the M2 mini dropping to ~$250 after the M4 hit.

That's really not a good proxy, as the base price of EVERYTHING was way lower in 2024. Heck, that M2 mini you're referring to is selling for more than $250 today.

The link you're sharing is a scam - the $269 "2024 M2" takes you to a $269 2014 Intel Core i5 turd.