And space launches. The Big Names will lose a ton of money and disappear as the tech commoditises.

The moat is Being Able To Do Things No One Else Can and as both hardware and software commoditise that moat disappears.

Open LLMs are already only a few months behind the frontier models and as soon as someone works out that accessible and cheap domain-specific custom training has the potential to be a gamechanger the Big Names will die.

Math puzzles only get you so far.

LLMs are in their Big Compute phase, and it's only a matter of time before that ends - because the intelligence of the frontier models isn't increasing fast enough and providing big enough benefits to make the models more valuable than cheaper, smaller competition.