assuming demand remains elevated and growing, maybe. But spend on AI is pretty stratospheric right now... companies are already starting to clamp down on spend. This makes you really wonder if there will be sufficient demand at current commodity prices for eg; OSS models to justify all these data centers.
Yes, I believe so. Using a sibling commenter's number of frontier models being 80X the price of commodity models, I think companies who switch will spend a minority of their savings to increase their token usage and only pocket the majority of the savings.