No Easy Fix for Bogus Respondents in Online Opt-In Polls

And here I was thinking this was proved beyond any reasonable doubt when 4chan users spoofed the Time Magazine person of the year poll of 2009 to spell out "MARBLECAKE, ALSO THE GAME" by the initials of the top winners:

https://techcrunch.com/2009/04/27/time-magazine-throws-up-it...

Or when Kim Jong Un won in 2012, spelling out "KJUGASCHAMBER":

https://observer.com/2012/12/4chan-successfully-votes-kim-jo...

The bit about 10% of respondents claiming they had visited the International Space Station was funny. Reminded me of this nugget[0], which for people unfamiliar with the subject doesn't mean that 20% of Jews believe in Jesus... it means that 20% of the respondents to the poll were either deranged or confused, and self-identity as Jewish for no clear reason. It's analogous to "1 in 5 vegans say they eat meat."

https://www.timesofisrael.com/jews-for-jesus-poll-15-of-jewi...

The lure of a few bucks for minimal effort always attracts fraud. Our own survey data is consistently tainted by bots and click-farmers.

I cannot find the paper again, but a small group of women giving birth in the US healthcare system do self report as virgins. There is not protecting for misunderstandings or malicious intent, even in person.

From time to time we've battled multiple ideas around polling and tech within my friend circles, because there really isn't "reliable" way of knowing "what people want" when it comes to government's decision makings. It's such a hard "reach and incentives" problem, that asking for an opinion, might change the opinion itself as well, depended on the questioning. That being said, it would be cool to see real opinions of people on general matters, rather than heavily sampled versions of it.

How about just not doing online opt-in polls

Nobody enjoys that experience; I personally am a "bogus" respondent.

The easy fix is to not do online polling.

Polls seem completely useless over the past decade or so. I think betting markets are a better indicator of true sentiment now.

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