alt Hacker NewsExpecting big progress to be made every month is a bit silly.
If the models are as capable in a years time as they are today you could say they have stalled.
Expecting big progress to be made every month is a bit silly.
If the models are as capable in a years time as they are today you could say they have stalled.
Improvement can still be happening, and it can be happening slower than it was a year ago. Both can be true.
And the observation that it's happening slower than it was means, not that it's stalled, but at least that it's not exponential anymore. The exponential phase is already over. That has implications for where we think the plateau is likely to be.