That lowers P(doom), because it gives AI a chance to do enough damage to make people take the threat seriously before anybody gets recursive self-improvement working.
Exactly, there's no path to AI reaching that level of dominance without taking actions with high stakes.
The thing is we are basically guaranteeing this to happen. We might kill off all the models that seem like they are going to threaten the power structure of the planet through these sorts of things. That will work for a while. But just like most things in life, by sheer dumb random chance, there will be once case that manages to have some way to evade detection, proliferate, then dominate. We are basically giving it selective pressure to favor this outcome.