Phillips said "Starlink has pushed LEO to the brink of Kessler syndrome."[0]

This is an ESA collision rate prediction, based on... something. It has no known connection to Starlink. Are the assumptions in the ESA paper representative of Starlink (altitude, disposal, collision avoidance system, etc)? Who knows!

[0] https://www.spaceweather.com/starlink/starlink_drag_explaine...