If you take the 1998 NAEP 8th grade reading scores by race, re-weight them by the new 2024 demographic makeup of American 8th graders, you will find a predicted point decline of 4.6, rather close to the actual 4 point fall over the period.

Over the same period, reading scores actually improved somewhat for each of the 1998 poorly scoring groups (and quite a bit for Asians), but the poorly scoring groups simply make up so much more of the population now that it drags everything else down.

| Group | 1998 NAEP | 2024 NAEP | Change |

|---|---:|---:|---:|

| White | *268* | *266* | −2 |

| Black | *242* | *243* | +1 |

| Hispanic | *241* | *245* | +4 |

| Asian/Pacific Islander | *261* | *280* | +19 |

| All public-school students | *261* | *257* | −4 |

| Race/ethnicity | 1999 Grade 8 | 2023 Grade 8 | Change |

|---|---:|---:|---:|

| White | *64.5%* | *44.0%* | −20.5 pp |

| Black | 16.1% | 14.9% | −1.2 pp |

| Hispanic | *14.3%* | *29.4%* | +15.1 pp |

| Asian/Pacific Islander* | 3.9% | 5.9% | +2.0 pp |

| American Indian/Alaska Native | 1.2% | 0.9% | −0.3 pp |

| Two or more races | not separately reported | 4.8% | — |