> In this case a 1% chance of $1bn represents an expected value of $10m.

This case has a 0% chance of anything because of the statute of limitations and no legitimate claim that would allow for decades-long tolling. He'd file suit, NVIDIA would file a motion to dismiss, the court would probably give him one chance to amend (to make an argument about tolling) and then it would be dismissed with prejudice.

If the full agreement had a prevailing-party attorney fee clause, this guy could end up paying NVIDIA's legal fees.