They were specifically interested in the question of whether there were enough of them in the world for this to realistically occur, so their model did take this into account even if it didn't simulate every tick of the world directly. (and the answer is yes: on the seed they found there are enough pumpkins and snow blocks for this to eventually happen).
Including the random walk from where the snow golem happened to get put and the one open portal in the world? That doesn't seem likely at all to me.