alt Hacker NewsI could point out that that as far as economy-impacting labor goes, it's almost all machines already today. At least in the developed world, few people do any kind of work that isn't at least partially mechanized. You don't see it because lawnmowers and spreadsheets are "normal" machines in your mind.
You're making the "this time it's different" case that AI will be categorically different from every other form of labor-saving automation that's come before it. I work with these models every day and I'm not buying it.
The hypothesis is about theoretical future models, not existing public ones. I'm making a prediction based on a pace of improvement that I believe will probably continue unabated and which likely is not going to hit significant bottlenecks for very long.