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CBLT • yesterday at 8:21 PM • 2 replies • view on HN

I'd come at this from a different angle: we still want this to be market system, so we need to make this priced into the market. How can we price this in?

I would try to solve this by making the market structure reflect the underlying difficulty: we have to decide what capacity to produce years in advance, to construct the memory fabs. So this should be a futures market, and a capacity crunch would affect short-term-futures, but leave full term futures at the same price. Because the companies supplying the memory can just construct more capacity to fill those futures at the same cost regardless of the AI demand.


Replies

marcosdumay • yesterday at 9:30 PM

Well, the best way to solve this problem keeping it a market system is if consumers band together and create a fab that will supply them.

Since almost everybody is a consumer of those companies, I do suggest we reuse the governance system we have that solves other "everybody problems".

paimapi • yesterday at 9:19 PM

ah yes, adding a futures market to a sector heavily invested in AI certainly won't lead to catastrophic over-speculation that will collapse the industry entire