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drybjed • today at 1:18 PM • 2 replies • view on HN

Make the oil less relevant to the point that 1/5th of it not being present doesn't affect the rest of the world. We are not there yet, but when we get there, there will be no reason to hold the Strait of Hormuz. Of course the impact on the Gulf states will be enormous, economic or otherwise, so it's hard to say if they will let this be.


Replies

traceroute66 • today at 1:25 PM

> there will be no reason to hold the Strait of Hormuz

Hormuz was yesterday's problem.

Today's problem which was entirely predictable to anybody with a map and half a brain is Bab El Mendab now being heavily disrupted by the Houthis etc.

It was always a case of when, not if.

Which now means the old ~20 day alternative-route transits via Bab are now ~50 days becuase you have to go via Suez and Cape of Good Hope.

This is exactly why all the other US presidents said no. It was a Pandora's box that was not worth the risk poking with a sharp stick.

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tw04 • today at 2:26 PM

So are we getting there by exhausting the strategic reserve, by killing renewable projects, or by eliminating fuel efficiency standards?