I'm always skeptical of "logarithmic growth in this new technology will continue forever" theories.
I'm also skeptical that LLMs can ever invent new ideas.
I may be wrong about how soon the curve will flatten, and I may be wrong about LLMs fundamental limitations. But, I don't think it's extremely obvious that LLMs can have novel ideas or can grow into having novel ideas.
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I'm always skeptical of "logarithmic growth in this new technology will continue forever" theories.
I'm also skeptical that LLMs can ever invent new ideas.
I may be wrong about how soon the curve will flatten, and I may be wrong about LLMs fundamental limitations. But, I don't think it's extremely obvious that LLMs can have novel ideas or can grow into having novel ideas.