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proxysna • today at 1:16 PM • 4 replies • view on HN

I have huge hopes fox CXMT entering the market and at least offsetting this nightmare. Just this week i've paid ~$1k USD for 2x32G DDR5 ECC, insane.


Replies

adrian_b • today at 2:33 PM

CXMT has entered the market, but for now they cannot increase their production fast enough to influence significantly the global prices, due to the US "sanctions", which prevent them to buy modern fabrication equipment.

So they must use older equipment, which has low productivity for state-of-the-art memories. Because of the "sanctions" there are now Chinese companies that have progressed significantly in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, but the effect of this will also take some more time to manifest.

Nonetheless, if the 3 big memory producers will not be able to increase the availability of memory until 2028, then until then CXMT will grab with certainty a major part of the market (they have already grown quickly until 10% of the market, from a negligible percent previously).

dv_dt • today at 2:07 PM

The greed and shortsightedness from both the memory makers and their big customers trying to lock out competitors from memory purchases is palpable. The first act of a Shakespearean or Greek Tragedy is where the characters take the actions that lock in the circumstances that precede their downfall. And this sets up everything for the next act where CXMT has everything it needs to establish itself on the market with buyers that would perhaps would not have considered it in other circumstances.

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elorant • today at 1:17 PM

They don't have the infrastructure to meet global demand.

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aurareturn • today at 1:59 PM

Everyone, and I mean everyone, is gated by ASML machines. They can't make nearly enough EUV machines to satisfy the demand. ASML has also not scaled their production nearly as much because they're quite far away from the AGI-pilled companies in the supply chain.

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