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jmyeet • today at 1:38 PM • 0 replies • view on HN

One factor constraining supply for RAM in the short-to-medium term is that memory manufacturers is that DDR5 (and assumedly DDR6) capacity is being moved to the much more profitable HBM.

I think supply will be tight until at least the AI market crashes, which could take years or happen within months. Nobody can really predict when this will happen but it's fairly clear (IMHO) that the revenue projections needed to justify the investments by OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX simply don't exist.

Without the AI boom, the economy is in recession and has been for awhile. We're in an affordability crisis and the energy crunch is coming.