There's one of mine in there where I predicted in 2023 that it would be 20 years until AI would be reliably able to entirely build and deploy arbitrary applications from a prompt. I was off by about 18 years on that one!
I’m right with you there.
It also didn’t help that for a very long time, simple adaptive filters and basic neural networks were branded as “artificial intelligence” despite having very basic capabilities and little mystery on how/why they worked in their narrow use case.
I didn’t believe the recent hype for a very long time. But having tried out the latest models, I’m kinda shocked. In 1 minute it comprehends a complex niche code base and points out subtle errors with very little noise. A senior engineer we would have taken months to do less. Coverity would have cost dearly and generated far more false positives than substance.
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One challenge of mine is a self-hosted AI doing my full tax return, without errors that would get me in trouble. Bonus points if it exploits legal loopholes.
I want AI to replace me in my chores, not in my enjoyable activities.