alt Hacker NewsOracle's recent force majeure invocation shines a spotlight on what seems to be an endemic problem: datacenter builders have been signing commitments to bring a certain amount of capacity online by a certain date, without first conducting sufficient due diligence about whether they would be able to secure all the resources needed to meet those commitments.
This means they are now caught in a mad scramble to source all sorts of stuff, including RAM, potentially as a matter of life and death.
What's less clear to me, though, is whether datacenter builders will be able to make good on these purchase agreements. It seems these projects have every opportunity to fail, and the path to success keeps getting narrower. What are the odds that chip manufacturers ultimately get caught holding a bag of chips that nobody can buy in one hand, and a bag of IOUs from bankrupt customers in the other?
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There are signs that we are, and are not, in an AI bubble.
Compared to the dotcom boom, firms are well positioned in terms of capital - they have revenue and profits.
However, there's still the absurd speculative valuations, risk, and high expenditure (on said data centres). Also, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, personal opinion - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv8e30enrkxyo
Yeah there was just a story about how there are hundreds of billions of dollars in "non-cancellable" debt obligations to build AI data centers. But they're building far beyond current demand, I feel like the collapse is inevitable.