“I believe there’s about a 50% chance we all die because of the development of smarter-than-human AI systems"

... over an unbounded timeframe?

And how exactly?

Those are very round numbers, but also very specific. Can we get some accounting on how you came to that? Anything? Vibes?

I mean, if you want me to take you seriously, let's have a deep discussion with things that can be measured. I absolutely agree that OpenAI and friends aren't being restrained enough and are acting with recklessness, but declarations of doom based on vibes isn't cutting it.