logoalt Hacker News

biophysboy • today at 1:42 AM • 1 reply • view on HN

Where does 50% come from? It is meaningless if the probability model is not explained.


Replies

0xDEAFBEAD • today at 2:10 AM

One could also use language like "a decent chance". But research has shown that people translate vague phrases like "a decent chance" into probabilities in inconsistent ways. For an ML researcher who is already used to dealing in next-token probabilities that aren't rigorously determined, just stating a probability estimate directly is very natural.

➕ show 2 replies