I don’t think OpenAI, Anthropic, nor Google are building their tech because they want to beat the Chinese. They’re building it because they want to hold the monopoly in the west (ie make lots of money).
The China argument is just a convenient scapegoat to convince the public that this isn’t just about greed.
Do you think Chinese models wouldn't dominate the western market if they were 1-2 years ahead in development? It doesn't have to be military conflict for it to be factored into the zero sum power balance.