The cost of batteries has gone down somewhere between 60-80% over the previous 10 years (and my understanding is that trend is expected to continue due to a combination of new technologies (e.g. Sodium Ion) and increased scale). So that one seems totally reasonable. A little conservative if anything.

I can't comment on the cost of Gas Turbines.

Swanson's law and learning rates do seem to apply to batteries more as well as the fact that their no of cycles seem to be much longer than initially thought for LFP as well as storage focused Sodium ion batteries from CATL

One enduring insight from Brian Potter (Construction Physics) is that the cost of manufacturing tends to go down with scale, while the cost of construction doesn't drop nearly as much. Batteries are made in a factory and then pretty much just hooked up, while gas turbines have to be built. So, the difference in forecasts makes sense if you apply that rule.

There have been some experiments with prefabricated construction, but you still run into the issue that shipping really big things is hard, as we've seen with wind turbine blades. Robotic construction might make a dent at some point, but it still seems to be basically embryonic.

Supply is larger than demand for batteries and prices are going down. Demand is larger than supply for natural gas turbines and prices are going up.

But that's just the short term.

More importantly, I believe that manufacturers are more confident in the long term future of demand for batteries so are willing to continue to invest. People are going to be buying electric cars 10 years from now. The demand for gas turbines in 10 years seems a lot more murky.

SpaceX has promised to start making turbines, which would bring their price down. But it's an Elon Musk promise, so how much weight do you put on it?

Wouldn't you agree that we're much further along the learning curve for turbines than for large scale battery storage?

If you had asked me whether I see more potential for battery prices to go down than turbine prices I would 100% say that batteries have more potential. Why?

1. Because there is a lot of pressure for them to go down, in literally every form of technology, be it phones, robots, drones, EVs, ... Turbines are also important, but they have had that pressure for decades and are relatively finished. Any further improvement will give diminishing results outside of specialized applications and demands

2. Because the technology for batteries is relatively open ended in comparison. Turbine prices are mainly about how that steel can be precision engineered and while there is some innovation at this front, the gains from that innovation have slowed for a while now. With batteries however the race is still very open and it would not be naive to assume some new chemistry will be found that reduces the cost and energy density drastically.

I don't know the economics around precision engineering well enough to intelligently how high demand impacts the manufacturing cost, but I could imagine it behaving slightly different than the cost of simpler processes, especially since good CNC machines are hefty investments.

https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline

> Every time the global cumulative battery production has doubled, the price has dropped by roughly 19%.

There are only a handful of gas turbine manufacturers left, with a manufacturing backlog of half a decade.

It is exceptionally obvious battery manufacturing will only continue to scale (TAM is global EV and stationary storage market), and gas turbine builders will hang on until the economics turn, which they have. Regardless, these trajectories will hold unless something exceptional occurs. Is it likely we’ll build more batteries faster? Yes. Is it likely these are the last three major gas turbine manufacturers to exist? Also yes. Last call for buggy whips.

https://www.enverus.com/blog/the-queue-before-the-queue-gevs...

https://fgermini.substack.com/p/heavy-duty-gas-turbines-the-...