alt Hacker NewsIf AI continues to improve at the current rate for 40 years then there is unlikely to be such a thing as a career.
Manual labor and trades is likely to be one of the last things to go, so the whole "dropout of school and go into trades" crowd may have been more correct than ever, though their original reasoning was not.
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All a career is is an exchange of value between people. They'll certainly exist but what is valued will shift, as they have been for centuries. Basically you can't just look at what LLMs will do, but you have to also consider how that will affect the broader economy and what our response to such will be. So what happens when LLMs start to bring the value of most digital cognitive work down to something approaching $0? It will just create a large vacuum in the economy that will ultimately get filled by other things. The obvious things that will probably increase in value will be stuff done/created in the real world, creative work, and so on.
It's also quite likely that the next big era for humanity will be the space era. And that stands to create the biggest labor boom in human history. It could also happen far faster than many might expect, even moreso as there will be competition between countries, especially as those left with only terrestrial claims will see their influence relatively wane. Space jobs and industry can also, in some ways, act as a more productive Works Progress Administration [1] to compensate for any temporary economic instability that LLMs might bring along.
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Works_Progress_Administration
Don't you think a robot can fix your toilet as well?
Why are meta glasses such a big deal? Because they need training data for manual labor.
Better to train on our own adaptability, which to an extend includes an advanced understanding of personal mental health
If it crashes, there will still be trades jobs but they won't pay enough to eat. What can you charge for electrical work when everyone is either broke or an electrician?
> Manual labor and trades is likely to be one of the last things to go
Yes, this is likely true. Plumber & Electrician on existing construction will likely take a long time (relatively speaking) to automate. And even if we end up being able to do it, it could be that humans will be the cheapest option when it comes to a lot of manual jobs especially given that there will be a large supply of unemployed humans in many scenarios.