How effective are the western embargos? Will it be possible for them to replace destroyed hardware?
I use ARM VPSes for quite some time and they are pretty performant. They don't have to replace with x86 systems. Linux on ARM is pretty mature and production ready at this point.
China is not part of the embargo, so I suspect commodity server and networking hardware isn't hard to come by.
great question, I don't have a good answer. supposedly there are modern gpus in Russia, here you can rent a H200 (a GPU which was released after the war had started) https://selectel.ru/services/dedicated/hgx-h200/
But how many of them exist and how easy is to replace, I have no idea
Computers aint cheap right now off the shelf. Can't imagine the embargo busting surcharge.
It'll be much harder to replace lost data than destroyed hardware.
Will it be possible? Yes. Will it be easy, or cheap? No.
As is often the case, embargoes don't make things impossible - but they do add friction. Longer lead times, "grey market partner" premiums. People who supply Russian companies with hardware get to pad their pockets - and while they have ties in Russia, for obvious reasons, they prefer to keep those padded pockets outside Russia itself.
It's even worse for bleeding edge in-demand extra-controlled hardware like modern AI systems.