Can AI automate AI R&D yet?

Short version of the article: no, not even close.

Practically every paragraph is negative, with sentences like "Agents made misleading claims about their work," and "A natural question is whether the agents could have improved with larger GPU budgets. Although both improved across their runs, in the case of Fable the improvements were almost entirely due to attempted cheating." and "For Sol, the answer is less clear-cut; it did make some progress, although its method was fairly incremental and had limited applicability to the coding task. This suggests that we should be pessimistic about further GPU spending," all reinforcing the fact that LLMs aren't currently capable of this.

My own view is "No, of course not, in fact they will never be capable of achieving good results with that technique." Because that technique will end up training the LLMs on their own output and lead to the inability to distinguish reality from hallucination. If you think I'm wrong about that, I'd be interested in hearing why.

How much of this can change if subsequent training runs produce models that are much better at abduction?

In my experience R&D has basically two axes: how innovative it is, and how well we can measure the results.

For the quadrant of non-innovative tasks where we already have a good way to measure performance, Claude can handle this. There is very little ambiguity, and we are basically just looking to maximize some metric under a set of constraints.

Many business processes are not like that. They might be conceptually simple, but it isn’t that easy to say whether a system has done a good job or not. I would say that LLMs can help with this a lot but they have bad judgement because it requires talking to people.

And the other, perhaps more rare issue is in problems where there is data but actually modeling it to sufficient quality or fast enough is hard.

I think the more interesting thing is was it unable to do it even knowing the solution? I feel like only testing a single innovation is biasing the current state of automated AI R&D.