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stult • today at 2:57 AM • 3 replies • view on HN

There is no model of the market that can remain stably accurate because the market will inevitably incorporate the insights of any model that is accurate until those insights are no longer accurate


Replies

teravor • today at 3:33 AM

in order for your model to accomplish that, you would get very rich.

there will also likely always be more. in the limit in order to get an edge your model would start to infer insider information. for example, it's common knowledge by now that satellite imagery is used to measure car numbers in parking lots, that's a proxy for insider information.

so it's not even so much the model as it is the data.

even being able to forecast weather better than publicly available methods can be leveraged to gain a significant edge.

majormajor • today at 3:40 AM

This assumes that any accurate model will inevitably get big enough to be noticable by the rest of the actors.

tylerflick • today at 3:08 AM

AKA the efficient markets hypotheses.

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