I don't think you understand the reason people want mobile linux. I want to be able to run arbitrary binaries and get access to graphics primitives on my phone, AOSP does none of this. I honestly don't even get the point of AOSP, the way you don't for mobile linux.
I want to be able to run arbitrary binaries and get access to graphics primitives on my phone, AOSP does none of this.
People use a phone for their most private information, including banking credentials, credit card credentials, car keys, etc. The banks, etc. are never going to permit running their apps on devices that can run arbitrary binaries. Most are already blocking rooted Android devices and Android devices with an unlocked bootloader. The fact that this is still possible on desktops (though not everywhere anymore, e.g. my bank requires you to use a phone app for authentication) is for historical reasons.
Also, you are an extremely small niche. If you are sufficiently motivated, you can live like that (run Linux phones, work around banks, etc.), but this will never be mainstream and this was implied in the question of the post (Will Linux phones become a viable alternative to the Android/iOS duopoly?).
If there will be a viable alternative to the Android/iOS duopoly, it will look a lot like Android/iOS. The best chance is an AOSP-based system like GrapheneOS.
You can still run traditional Linux desktop apps in a VM on such phones.
You can absolutely run arbitrary binaries. The binary format for Android is an APK, but if you really meant a random arm binary you can run that as well just fine, android even natively has a terminal now.
And what do you mean "graphics primitives"? You have an abstraction layer, the same as you do on Linux. Like you ain't writing directly against a particular video card either , unless you write a kernel driver.