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ninjagoo • today at 9:37 AM • 8 replies • view on HN

For now, those with Capital will probably be ok. Those without Capital? In the EU, they'll probably be ok. In the US? Who knows. In China, India, LATAM, Africa - who knows?

Ultimately in the future (near? middle? far?), Capital will also be useless because the marginal value of everything will be driven towards zero, and who will be the buyers? Certainly not those with Capital, because the marginal cost of anything being close to zero would mean that they would not need to buy from others - they can just make their own. And those without Capital won't have the means to buy anything, even when the cost is close to zero.

Interesting times ahead?

Anyone care to speculate what that future will look like? Two different eras: post-employment, and post-capitalism?


Replies

skew-aberration • today at 10:16 AM

> Capital will also be useless because the marginal value of everything will be driven towards zero

Capital is that fraction of produce set aside for future production. OpenAI is capital but not all wealth is capital. And capital isn't going anywhere - the machines will have gigafactories etc. The value of labor will plumet but present-day capital that is usable by the machines or can be scrapped and repurposed will retain value.

The value of square meter of land + mineral/sunlight rights (not capital) is likely to rise - the amount of wealth that somebody would give you for that asset would probably increase, as more wealth can be generated from it.

Individuals without wealth now will likely end up with a much lower allocation of those things which retain value (land, materials, etc) while having a much higher quantity (relative to now) of those things whose value will drop - AI tokens, electronics, entertainment, etc.

Essentially our current trajectory taken to the limit. Land expensive, food expensive, interest low, smartphone cheap.

> who will be the buyers

Imagine an impoverished and technologically backward country which has been colonized/occupied, and where the most valuable assets are exported well below market price or stolen. The people still trade their own labor for subsistence. They still produce some goods which have value in outside countries, they receive some charity, there is still tourism, their labor has some value (servitude, trafficking). AI would be the same (assuming laws hold up) - e.g. you could rent out your solar panels to OpenAI in exchange for a loaned domestic robot and a token subscription.

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serpicourge • today at 10:02 AM

Energy, land and row materials will be the main limiting factors.

Mega corp will advance technology exponentially, but for the rest of us we will live in a mix of medieval life style assisted by robotic and low tech. People will exode city and go back to the countryside.

For what concern my self, I'm buying arable land, maybe in couple of years home food production will be fully automated.

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tonyedgecombe • today at 9:50 AM

I do wonder what will happen to the outsourcing industry in India. In the UK at least it seems that most corporate development has been sent to Infosys, Wipro, etc.

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ReptileMan • today at 9:51 AM

> Those without Capital? In the EU, they'll probably be ok.

They probably won't. EU is not the same economic bloc that it was up to 2004 anymore. I am not sure that there is big country in EU that is having consistent high growth. I expect in the next 15 years the western eu countries to experience the joy of living standards collapse that the eastern bloc enjoyed during the 90s. But without some of the factors that made it bearable for the east.

petra • today at 10:21 AM

If the aim of each country is just job creation, leaving aside "comparative advantage", job quality, salary, etc:

1. There are plenty of things being outsourced, They can be done locally.

2. There are plenty of things currently not being done by locals - like elderly care.

3. We can find new things to do.

4. We can work less.

And even if those things raise living standard somewhat, the efficiencies from AI/robots should be more than enough to compensate.

But, in a capitalistic globalized economy this isn't how things work. So we'll see some shift from that. And it will work better in countries with a more democratic socialistic leaning rather than capitalistic.

We're already starting to see that, with the recent EU trade deal with china, limiting the amount of cars china can send to Europe.

cleaner • today at 9:52 AM

Reminds me of The Zero Marginal Cost Society by Jeremy Rifkin.

m4tthumphrey • today at 9:46 AM

> Anyone care to speculate what that future will look like? Two different eras: post-employment, and post-capitalism?

In a word, bleak.

philipallstar • today at 9:46 AM

Automation kills some jobs and creates more jobs. Nothing about AI (other than the statements of people with lots of shares in AI companies) looks to be any different.

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