Sure, open models will definitely be an alternative once the frontier models hike prices to match costs. But that will be a minority, and people will start to switch, but people use the frontier models for a reason and these AI labs will extort that, once the easy investor money dries up.
My company pay a copilot subscription to everyone, plus my team have a bedrock subscription that cost us 7k last month. In the meantime, some guys created a new internal team and are testing open source models (for our red team) on our own hardware (we didn't sold our 'old', 3 year old servers RAM/CPU, so the only investment was GPUs). My guess is that within the next 6 months our red team will use open source models exclusively, and my team will probably follow within two years. Especially if the GPU prices go down