> These companies believe they're a year from AGI, and that's how they'll be profitable.

What I don't get is that if Company A is a year from AGI (I don't think that's true, but then again, I don't think anyone even has a good definition of AGI), then surely Companies B–ZZ are only a few years (at most!) from AGI as well. There is no moat. Or if there is a moat, the moat is hardware scarcity – but that's systemically outside of the control of these companies.