alt Hacker NewsDo you think that human civilization has a finite demand for intelligence? That there is a point that we can hit, and stop there, and say "we've thought of all there is to think about, no more thinking is required?"
Do you think that we are anywhere near that point?
We've already seeing things - like what's happening with AI reverse engineering now. I'm a reverse engineer - and I know that the reason why RE was used as "last resort option" was that expert reverse engineers are rare, expensive, and work slow.
But now that a lot of RE workloads can be tackled by AI instead of a human? The demand for reverse engineering is at a never before seen high. AI made reverse engineering much more viable - and thus, a lot more reverse engineering is happening now.
There are myriads of fields like this - things that go overlooked not because no one wants them, but because the economics of human expertise make them nonviable in most cases. As AI gets better, it can begin to enter those fields.
Except you, of course, need to push the frontier to do it.
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This kind of all depends on being able to continuously make better models indefinitely. I'm not convinced that's possible. If there is a limit, then everybody will get there, and anthropic has no moat at all.
I could be wrong, of course.
This is insanely delusional.
Much of humanity doesn’t think at all btw - that’s why they’ll never pay for these products and Google search had to be free.
Furthermore two things could be true a) market for frontier is large b) Anthropic still continues to generate net loss’s
> Do you think that human civilization has a finite demand for intelligence?
No, I don't. But for any given task there is a ceiling above which for that task there is no value in additional intelligence. E.g. it takes very little intelligence (none, in fact) to sort a list. More intelligence does not result in a more sorted list.
And so for a huge proportion of what we do there is a ceiling of value that can be extracted by selling AI tools to do any given task.
Combine that with there being at any given time a ceiling of available capital to be apportioned to buy intelligence to carry out the remaining tasks, and the floor of tasks that non-frontier models can do well enough rising, and there will at any given time be a finite amount of capital that will be accessible to frontier models.
It is by no means given that that slice of capital will grow rapidly enough for frontier providers to be able to create an attractive financial return. That depends on frontier labs being able to continue to deliver sufficiently more value than cheaper models at any given time that enough people won't simply wait.
I'm extremely bullish on AI in terms of its ability to transform society over time, but that does not automatically translate into assuming that the current frontier labs are a safe investment bet.