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Kevin Kelly's 2016 AI Predictions, 10 Years Later

57 points • by surprisetalk • today at 3:16 PM • 10 comments • view on HN

Comments

stephen_cagle • today at 5:31 PM

By my own, completely arbitrary split of this into 16 predictions, I would say that this hits on maybe 8 of 16 if we are being a bit generous. Which is good, but certainly not "Inevitable" (the title of the book).

With that said, maybe he meant inevitable as N approaches infinity... So there's still time!

Aside: I think the biggest interesting prediction he had was that AI would obey a user driven network effect. It seems like a very clean prediction, and yet it has failed to materialize? I wonder if this has more to do with just how scrape-able the whole internet was or with distilation or what? There is certainly an advantage to having good user data, but it seems like it is largely something that can be worked around (by hook or crook)?

cousinbryce • today at 5:32 PM

Google’s main product was and continues to be ads

AndrewKemendo • today at 5:17 PM

If you really want your mind blown look at how accurate Ray Kurzweil was from his 1999 book Age of Spiritual Machines

The most striking thing is that almost all of his missed predictions were missed not because the technology was not available, but because society rejected or didn’t adopt that technology

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brabel • today at 6:10 PM

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