Why do we always talk about ai capabilities in the future tense?
What's stopping them from doing these right now? Script kiddies have basically reverse engineered the PS5 at that point, do you think state actors need better models?
Possibly that anything more substantial than defrosting some fridges is basically equivalent of a military strike, and will be treated as such.
Scale.
State actors could always spy on whoever they want, AI (between hacking into phones even when their country is not big enough to just lean on the Big Tech firms, TTS models, and LLMs) lets them spy on everyone at once.
Various people (not sure if "script kiddies" is fair) may have reverse engineered the PS5, but they don't generally waste time going after Z-list celebrities' own brand of smart light bulbs.
Just as a virus lets you attack all identical computers once you've written it, a sufficiently competent LLM lets you attack basically all computers identical or not.