> will most "explorers" survive in a world where "problem miners" exist?

I think that's the key question. To be honest - I have no idea. You said it right when you said "But motivations are multifaceted and I could see people who value careers over satisfaction winning if AI helps them."

It's a complicated question. I can only speak for myself in that I would not want to participate in what's happening today. But it's entirely possible that people will adapt also and find a new niche for themselves within mathematics even if they're not the miner type.