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keoneflick • today at 5:23 PM • 3 replies • view on HN

An investment in the S&P 500 at the heights of 2000 would not materially exceed its basis until 2013!

An Nasdaq would not materially exceed until 2016.

Yes, this ignores dividends, but that really only helps manage inflation.

You would have done much better being out of the stock market until the 2009 crash.


Replies

rsanek • today at 5:59 PM

Excluding dividends is a pretty big asterisk, including them you're back to even within 6.5 years.

➕ show 1 reply
orangepanda • today at 5:34 PM

Dividends are part of the total returns and cant just be ignored. Taking them into account, the break-even point is non-insignificantly earlier.

It’s the total returns that matter, not just stock price.

ashdksnndck • today at 6:02 PM

So if you knew in advance about the timing of both the tech bubble and the real estate bubble, you could have made a lot of money trading on that?