> the consumer is quite healthy this time around

Inflation's way up. Real wages are down.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/14/business/economy/inflatio...

> Wage growth has remained relatively muted over the past year. That, combined with higher inflation, means Americans are earning less for an hour of work. Average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.5 percent in September, and were down 0.7 percent from a year earlier. It was the sixth straight month of year-over-year declines in real earnings.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/household-debt-delinquencies-ri...

> The share of seriously delinquent auto loan balances has hit a record high this year, while nearly 13% of credit card balances are seriously past due — close to their 2010 peak in the aftermath of the housing crisis — according to recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/american-debt-delinquency.ht...

> The ability of U.S. families to stay current on their debts worsened over the past three years, hitting levels not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.