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xorcist • yesterday at 8:15 PM • 2 replies • view on HN

> OpenAI and Anthropic will lose their one remaining plausible path to profitability

You forgot about Ads. The one true endgame for every tech company.


Replies

bunderbunder • yesterday at 9:06 PM

OpenAI's leaked financials suggest about a $38bn loss last year. They recently claimed their ad business had an annualized run rate of $1bn. Annualized run rate is a bullshit, non-GAAP, obviously fudged number designed to impress people who've never heard of regression to the mean, but still, let's trust it for the sake of argument. And let's assume that "yesterday's weather" is a good enough estimate for how their overall finances are looking in 2026. That implies that all they need for profitability is to quickly grow their ad revenue by, say, 3,500 - 4,000%.

Easy peasy. Shouldn't be too hard at all.

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AlexCoventry • today at 4:20 AM

I think there are a lot of people who would pay very good money for access to mathematical and coding ability like OpenAI's systems have demonstrated. I wonder how much they're being paid by the USAF to try to unhork the F-35's avionics software, for instance.