alt Hacker NewsThey are overreacting imo. A lot of mathematicians stuck their head in the sand with o3 but this was the logical outcome; superhuman deduction
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Disagree, there are in fact documented cases.
> I think I have been underrating the pace of model improvements. In March 2025 I made a bet with Tamay Besiroglu, cofounder of RL environment company Mechanize, that AI tools would not be able to autonomously produce papers I judge to be at a level comparable to that of the best few papers published in 2025, at comparable cost to human experts, by 2030. I gave him 3:1 odds at the time; I now expect to lose this bet.
https://www.daniellitt.com/blog/2026/2/20/mathematics-in-the...
“I’ve slowly updated my timelines over the past year…”
and
“I think I have been underrating the pace of model improvements. … I was not correctly calibrated as to the capabilities of existing models, let alone near-future models.”
I don't get the argument - if we follow what you say, they're not _overreacting_, they are reacting appropriately but should have done so earlier (when o3 was released) rather than now?