alt Hacker News1) The fab will have been a highly profitable investment, possibly worth spinning out
2) more than 1mm optimus produced and sold in the US
Happy for any counters :)
Replies
HarHarVeryFunny • yesterday at 10:02 PM
You've got to take Musk's forecasts with a massive grain (sack?) of salt. Pre-launch he was estimating making 250,000 Cybertrucks per year by 2025. So far, total sales over 3 years have actually been 60-70K.
I'd bet that in 5 years time Optimus total sales are in the 10's of thousands at best, with few to no large scale industrial users (other than self-use by Musk). Customers will be similar to what AgiBot and Unitree currently have - entertainment, hospitality, academic, small scale trials, plus a few Tesla fanboy sales that don't do anything actually productive.
In five years? It would be an achievement if it's operating in five years. Absolutely zero chance it will be profitable by then.
1MM Optimus sold in the US is hilarious too.
Want to make bets on these?