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zackmorris • today at 8:22 PM • 1 reply • view on HN

*yet

I understand the resistance to having nearly all labor devalued because it can be automated. We're still in the denial stage of grief.

We only tax capital gains, not the destruction of wealth or property. So someone can steal the livelihoods of millions of people with no recourse. Just like they can tear down a 100 year old house and build 3 townhouses in its place and make hundreds of thousands of dollars, despite driving up housing costs in the neighborhood to the point that they're unaffordable. Large swaths of profit in the economy are based on externalities and captured markets now.

To think we'll make it through this without tax reform is frankly naive. Tax reform as in: human labor should not be taxed, and non-human labor and capital gains should be taxed more to cover the difference - including unemployment checks and UBI when it comes to it.

Expect howls of derision from moneyed interests who will never let common sense reasoning or deduction enter the law books for the public good.

Not to defeat my own argument, but I predict we will experience a roughly 3x gain in productivity by using AI, so the output of every job would need to triple to maintain current employment levels. Will that happen anytime soon? Of course not. Which is why layoffs in the short term are inevitable. I wouldn't be surprised if unemployment hits 15+% in 2027 or 2029 just after the elections, with 25+% unemployment for the young in entry-level roles being highly likely.


Replies

maerF0x0 • today at 8:35 PM

> driving up housing costs in the neighborhood to the point that they're unaffordable

Thats usually a combo of lack of competition, incentives (why make $50K a unit times 10 sales when you can make $250K a unit times two sales?), and zoning laws making the cheaper thing illegal.

Some of it stemming from K shaped economy which means the most profitable audience to serve are the upper middle class and richer .