By next year we will likely see GLM 5.3 level performance in Qwen 4 MoE models that can run on most higher end consumer systems.
I don't think there is a reason to care about any of it, just get a few dollars on a few openrouter or similar platforms and just use the models for now, wait for cheaper models that are good enough for you to become available for your hardware.
Sure you might never see frontier performance on consumer hardware but do you really need that though? Does anyone? And if you ever do just get a 30-day sub for that work, and cancel it.
Yeah performance at a given compute budget will likely continue to improve.
We are running Qwen 3.8 27B FP8 with 4x 5060 16gb at the office for a small development team. It is doing pretty well for implementing backend and frontend tasks, and is already useful. In 6 and 12 months from how I expect it to get even better. Some planning is still done with a stronger model, but even that is maybe not strictly necessary.