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georgemcbay • today at 3:44 PM • 2 replies • view on HN

> I find it very weird how he didn't foresee the end of math, being so smart. I mean I did and I'm definitely less smart than him.

IMO this is probably not an accurate assessment of Tao in particular at this time.

But in the general case, I think most people have a set of blinders on that will result in a predictable reassessment of AI with the following steps as AI progresses when applied to whatever it is they do:

1) AI is useless and doesn't impact me at all. Look at how bad it is! (Most developers up until late 2025)

2) Ok, now AI is useful but will not replace me. Sucks for the juniors in the field but I am still needed to guide the AI. AI will never be capable of my judgement (or whatever). (Most developers now)

3) Oh shit, I've been replaced in terms of economically valuable utility by AI. (tbd, but likely sooner than is comfortable)

And not everyone will experience #3, there will be a top 1% or so for most fields where #3 remains true for them, but it is likely that for most people #3 comes eventually.


Replies

kaffekaka • today at 7:52 PM

I think the thing is if/when #3 turns true society is no more.

Then people respond: "the elite will use their ai armies to kill everyone else". This will not happen. I believe more in the worst case being chaos and rebellions. Not good for anyone, not even the elite.

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zeroonetwothree • today at 4:00 PM

It is unlikely anyone would actually have zero utility, if only because of comparative advantage. (Although I think there will still be absolute advantage)

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