This is probably the boldest claim in the entire comments section, considering we're only in 2026.
Compare 1926 to 1999, and how technology advanced in that time. Radio wasn't widespread in 1926, nuclear fission hadn't been demonstrated, the idea of the semiconductor energy band gap, underlying the entirety of the modern computing industry, wasn't put forth until 1928. And yet, 20 years later we were purifying silicon, and 10 years after that (1954) the first silicon transistor was created and kicked off the semiconductor boom. 50 years later, we were in the Internet bubble.
We've got decades upon decades upon decades to come up with new ideas and implement them, even before the end of the century.
Nothing bold in it, as there is no more meaning in the AGI.
We already lived through multiple AGIs for the last few years.
Right, I have to think P(AGI by century's end | LLMs turn out to be an AGI dead end) is still at least 50%.