Whenever I read these arguments, it seems to me like folks are talking past each other because programmers tend to fall into two camps.

Those who spend time thinking about a problem, then writing design notes, specifications, and test plans, and focus on the implementation last. For these people, AI agents primarily act like an extension to their existing toolchain, and thus like the analogy of "AI as the new compiler".

The other side are people who don't like writing specifications and such, and rather prefer to sit down figure things out as they start coding. For them, an agent feels radically different from a compiler.

In both instances the AI agent is still the same tool, with the same real-world capabilities and limitations. It is not like one camp is blind, they just have very different workflows.

It also seems to me like many in the "sit down and code" camp then slowly figure out that doing some planning ahead of time helps them get better results, and they see this as another AI-led paradigm shift, when in reality it is how many other programmers have worked for decades.