Solar panels (which continue get cheaper every year) on my house makes charging my low-TCO EV free in 5 years

If you make it easy for lots of people to make the fuel, yes. EVs and smaller scale power generation anyone?

That would likely require innovation in a renewable liquid fuel that can work at scale.

Electrification will drive the demand for oil down, making the overhead more expensive per gallon, and eventually we will largely move off of fossil fuels, though I don't expect completely. It will be many decades due to the turnover times for industrial/commercial transportation systems.

Yes if China somehow gets the fuel and subsidize it to sell it for cheaper in the global world, even the gulf state price will go down.