alt Hacker NewsI don't get why people think Chinese models could bring openai and anthropic to their knees. There are zero signs of such a scenario. In fact the market is still growing at a gigantic pace. Quality of American models is still AAA. Chinese will have their place. But they are unmatched by their American rivals.
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If the capability keeps growing significantly, then I agree it's possible the US could hold their significant lead indefinitely.
However, capability could plateau or reach a point where most of the market can't tell the difference and isn't willing to pay a premium.
> But they are unmatched by their American rivals.
Kimi K3.1 is top 5 on AA and half the price of Opus 5.5, Qwen4 is coming soon. There is near zero difference for most tasks, so it matters less today and even less as time goes on. Price is now the top concern for a reason.
"Bring them to their knees" is highly unlikely.
"Puncture expectations of a multi-trillion dollar valuation" OTOH seems quite likely to me.