alt Hacker NewsLet's posit that that's possible, for Anthropic to get to 500B in revenue, they'd either need 100% of the market or the market has to be even bigger.
OpenAI, Google, the many Chinese labs all have products and several of them likely have better financial positions. At the moment Anthropic have one of the best models but it needs to stay sufficiently above competition for them to capture a large share of the market.
At the same time this year we've seen a move for model diversification as cheaper models become "good enough". If this IPO was 6 months ago I think it might have gone better for them.
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The "good enough" problem is a real biter. The personal PC market overtook the mainframe market long before PCs were even close to beating the top supercomputers. Cheap and good enough is the threat.
What does good enough look like for various use cases, when do we hit it, and can these companies guard that territory?
I think the market has the potential to be 1 or 2 trillion in the US, 10% to 20% of labor costs. I say this because I believe most companies would not blink at spending that money to supply their workforce with AI tools assuming the AI actually did the work.
The winner take all network effects are probably not there in this case, but still if Anthropic is a large player and has 20-30% of the market they could have a revenue in the hundreds of billions.
Double the size of the market to include most of the rest of the world and the 500B is suddenly under 20% market share.