Although I agree inference will become cheap (probably not zero), it's quite possible that there is a moat they can build around understanding customer context.
With each query OpenAI and Anthropic get more context about their users. When I compare answers between AIs the ChatGPT answer often includes useful things it inferred from earlier conversations. Losing that context could be a meaningful barrier for a customer to switch to a cheaper service.
> With each query OpenAI and Anthropic get more context about their users.
Not unless they break their own TOS. The temptation must be very large to do so and is probably why those settings keep mysteriously shifting back to 'yes, I give all my data to you to do with as you please'.