alt Hacker NewsI think that that is more of an illustration that polls are always about a statistical likelihood and never about an absolute. With a 3-5% margin 14% is not as unlikely as you might think. (It's ~ 1:3).
I think that that is more of an illustration that polls are always about a statistical likelihood and never about an absolute. With a 3-5% margin 14% is not as unlikely as you might think. (It's ~ 1:3).
You need a measure of variance to perform that kind of estimate. There's scenarios where 98% of results land within 3-5% of a value, and the 14% is extremely unlikely. And scenarios where the variance is high, and it's much more likely. (you can also be wrong about what you think the variance is)